The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of North Carolina voters finds half of voters (50%) support Republican Ted Budd for US Senate and 45% support Democrat Cheri Beasley. Two percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Budd’s support increases to 51% and Beasley to 46%. Since last month, Budd’s support has grown by four percentage points and Beasleuy’s support has grown by two. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Since last month, Budd has maintained his 16-point lead among male voters, whereas Beasley’s nine-point lead among women voters has shrunk to a four point lead.”

Republican Ted Budd is viewed favorably by 53% of voters, whereas 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Democrat Cheri Beasley is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, whereas 48% view her unfavorably.

Biden holds a 56% disapproval among North Carolina voters, while 37% approve of the job he is doing as president. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 51% would vote for Trump and 40% for Biden. Seven percent would vote for someone else.

The economy is the top issue for 41% of North Carolina voters in determining their November vote, followed by abortion access (13%), healthcare (10%), and “threats to democracy” (10%). On handling inflation, 49% of voters trust the Republican Party more to handle inflation, whereas 39% trust the Democratic Party more to handle inflation. Independents trust Republicans over Democrats on handling inflation 48% to 31%.

A plurality of voters (48%) say they are more likely to vote in the 2022 Elections following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 44% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote. Of those that are more likely to vote in 2022, Beasley leads 67% to 30%, conversely those who said it made no difference are breaking for Budd 70% to 24%.

Voters were asked a series of questions on gun policy. First, a plurality of North Carolina voters (40%) support banning assault-style weapons, while 33% oppose an assault weapons ban and 27% are unsure or have no opinion. 

A majority of voters (57%) support red flag laws, which allow for extreme risk protection orders to remove guns from individuals upon a family member showing the individual poses serious risk to themselves or others, while 22% oppose red flag laws, and 21% are unsure or have no opinion. A plurality of voters (47%) support armed teachers in schools, while 35% oppose armed teachers, and 19% are unsure. Sixty three percent (63%) of Republicans support arming teachers compared with 57% of Democrats who oppose this policy.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill North Carolina poll was conducted October 27-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.

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