Harris 63%, Trump 33%
A new Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill survey of Maryland likely voters finds 54% support Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, while 40% support former Republican Governor Larry Hogan in the U.S. Senate election. Six percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Alsobrooks’ overall support increases to 57%, and Hogan to 43%.
Since the last Emerson Maryland poll in September, Alsobrooks’ support increased by five points, while Hogan’s support decreased by two points.
“Alsobrooks holds a commanding 27-point lead among Maryland female voters, an increase from her 18-point lead among women last month, while Hogan only has a one-point edge among male voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.
The poll finds 63% of Maryland voters support Vice President Kamala Harris, while 33% support former President Donald Trump in 2024. Two percent plan to support a third-party candidate and 2% are undecided.
“Maryland independent voters break for Harris over Trump, 51% to 42%,” Kimball said. “Harris holds a 16-point lead among male voters in Maryland, and a more notable 41-point lead among women.”
Maryland Governor Wes Moore holds a 52% job approval rating, while 28% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. President Joe Biden holds a 50% job approval among Maryland likely voters, while 38% disapprove of Biden’s performance as president.
The economy is the top issue for 35% of likely voters in Maryland, followed by housing affordability (15%), crime (14%), and threats to democracy (10%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Maryland survey was conducted October 19-21, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=865, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
