Governor: Ayotte (R) 46%, Craig (D) 43%
A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey in New Hampshire finds 50% of likely voters support Kamala Harris for president in 2024, while 47% support former president Donald Trump. Two percent plan to vote for a third party and 1% are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Harris’ overall support increases to 51% and Trump stays at 47%.
Since the July 2024 Emerson New Hampshire poll, Harris’ support remained at 50%, while Trump’s support increased by one point.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In addition, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who break for Harris by 13 points, but broke for Biden by about double that amount.”
In the gubernatorial election to replace Governor Chris Sununu, 46% support former Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, while 43% support Former Mayor of Manchester Democrat Joyce Craig. Seven percent are undecided.
“Independent voters are split in New Hampshire: 42% support Ayotte and Craig respectively,” Kimball said. “Craig leads among voters under 40, 47% to 42%, and over 70, 47% to 41%, while Ayotte leads voters 40-60, 49% to 39%.”
A majority of New Hampshire voters (53%) have a favorable view of Harris, while 47% have an unfavorable view of the vice president. Forty-seven percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 53% have an unfavorable view of him.
Half of voters have a favorable view of Ayotte, while 48% have an unfavorable view of her. Two percent have never heard of Ayotte. Forty-six percent have a favorable view of Craig, while 48% have an unfavorable view of Craig. Six percent have never heard of the former mayor.
The top issue for New Hampshire voters is the economy at 34%, followed by housing affordability at 26%, threats to democracy at 10%, healthcare at 8%, and immigration at 6%.
President Biden holds a 39% job approval rating in New Hampshire, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Chris Sununu holds a 48% job approval rating, and 28% disapproval.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling New Hampshire survey was conducted October 21-23, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=915, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
