North Carolina: Trump 50%, Harris 48% | Wisconsin Trump 49% Harris 48%
WI: Baldwin (D) 48%, Hovde (R) 48%
NC: Stein (D) 51%, Robinson (R) 39%
New Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld surveys show tight presidential races in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, 50% support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris. In Wisconsin, 49% support Trump and 48% support Harris.
“There is a clear gender divide, with men favoring Trump more strongly than women for Harris,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In North Carolina, men back Trump by 13 points, while women support Harris by seven points. In Wisconsin, men support Trump by 12, while women favor Harris by nine points.”
In Wisconsin, the race for U.S. Senate is tied: 48% support Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 48% support Republican Eric Hovde. Three percent are undecided.
In North Carolina, 51% support Democrat Josh Stein, while 39% support Republican Mark K. Robinson for governor. Four percent plan to vote for someone else and 6% are undecided.
“Eight percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and also support Stein on the gubernatorial ballot, while little to no Harris voters are splitting their ticket to vote for Robinson,” Kimball noted.
The top issue for North Carolina voters is the economy at 40%, followed by threats to democracy at 14%, and housing affordability and immigration, at 11% respectively.
The top issue for Wisconsin voters is also the economy at 41%, followed by threats to democracy at 17%, abortion access at 10%, and immigration and housing affordability at 9% respectively.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Wisconsin and North Carolina surveys were conducted October 21-22, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Wisconsin, n=800, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in North Carolina, n=950, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by RealClearWorld.
