The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Ohio voters finds Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in statistical dead heat in the US Senate Election; 46% plan to vote for Vance and 45% plan to vote for Ryan. Nine percent are undecided. Since last month, Vance’s support has increased by two points and Ryan’s support has increased by five points.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Men are breaking for the Republican candidate and women are breaking for the Democratic candidate in the US Senate Election; men for Vance over Ryan 53% to 40%, while women for Ryan over Vance 49% to 39%. A higher share of women are undecided at 11%, compared to 6% of men.”
In the election for Governor, Republican incumbent Mike DeWine holds a 14 point lead over Democrat Nan Whaley, 50% to 36%. Eight percent are undecided and 6% plan to vote for someone else. Since last month, DeWine’s support has held at 50%, and Whaley’s support has increased three points.
Fifty-seven percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 37% approve. In a hypothetical 2024 match-up between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 48% would support Trump and 40% support Biden. Nine percent would support someone else and 3% are undecided. In a hypothetical match-up between Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, DeSantis leads 49% to 38%. Seven percent are undecided and 6% would vote for someone else.
A plurality of voters (35%) say the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Trump in 2024, 34% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to support Trump, and 32% say it makes them less likely to vote for him.
The economy is the most important issue in determining the vote of 45% of Ohio voters, followed by threats to democracy (15%), and abortion access (13%).
“For voters whom the economy is the top issue, 66% plan to vote for Vance and 22% Ryan. For those who say threats to democracy is their top issue, 81% plan to vote Ryan, and for those who say abortion is their top issue, 89% plan to vote for Ryan,” Kimball noted.
A majority of voters (54%) oppose Ohio’s abortion law, which prohibits abortion after six weeks, or when a fetus has a detectable heartbeat; 46% support the law. Since last month, opposition for the law increased by four points and support for the law decreased by four points.
Kimball said, “Among voters who oppose the abortion law, 71% plan to vote for Ryan and 19% Vance. Among those who support the law, 77% plan to vote for Vance and 14% for Ryan.”
Fifty-three percent of voters say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them more likely to vote this November, while 43% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Ohio voters was conducted October 6-7, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, a voter registration list of emails, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.