DeWine Expands 21-Point Lead

The final Emerson College Polling survey of the Ohio Midterm Elections finds 51% of voters support Republican JD Vance for US Senate, while 43% support Democrat Tim Ryan. Four percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Vance’s support increases to 53% and Ryan to 44%. Since the October Ohio poll, Vance has gained five percentage points and Ryan has lost two. Regardless of whom they support, 56% expect Vance to win while 44% expect Ryan to be elected. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “In mid-October, men were breaking for Vance by 13 points and women for Ryan by ten points. In the past few weeks, Vance has expanded his lead among men to 18 points over Ryan, leading 57% to 39%, and Ryan’s lead among women has diminished to one point, leading 47% to 46%.”

In the gubernatorial election, 55% plan to support incumbent Republican Mike DeWine, while 34% support Nan Whaley. Seven percent are undecided. Since October’s poll, DeWine has gained five percentage points, from 50% to 55%, while Whaley has lost two points, from 36% to 34%. 

The economy is the most important issue in determining the vote of 47% of respondents, followed by “threats to democracy” (14%), abortion access (12%), healthcare (8%), and immigration (6%). 

Fifty-seven percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 35% approve. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 50% would support Trump and 38% would vote for Biden. Nine percent would vote for someone else.

A 41% plurality of Ohio voters say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to vote for the endorsed candidate, while 30% say it makes them more likely to vote for that candidate, and 30% say it makes no difference on their vote.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling survey of Ohio voters was conducted October 30-November 1, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

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