The first Emerson College Polling survey of the Oregon November election finds Republican Christine Drazan with a two-point lead over Democrat Tina Kotek, 36% to 34%, while 19% support independent candidate Betsy Johnson. Nine percent are undecided.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “A plurality of Independent voters, 34% support Drazan, 29% support Johnson, and 18% support Kotek. Among Republicans, 80% support Drazan, and 9% support Johnson, while 71% of Oregon Democrats plan to vote for Kotek, 17% express support for Johnson.
Forty-two percent of Oregon voters have a favorable view of Republican candidate Christine Drazan, while 41% have an unfavorable view of her. Thirty-eight percent have a favorable view of Democratic candidate Tina Kotek, while half of voters (50%) have an unfavorable view. Thirty-six percent have a favorable view of independent candidate Betsy Johnson, while 49% have an unfavorable view of Johnson.
In the US Senate Election, a majority of voters (51%) plan to support incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden while 32% support Republican Jo Rae Perkins. Nine percent plan to vote for someone else and 9% are undecided.
In a hypothetical presidential matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 50% would support Biden, 41% Trump, and 7% someone else. Regarding the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago, 35% say it makes no difference on their likelihood of supporting Trump in 2024, while 33% say it makes them more likely to support Trump should he run, and 32% say it makes them less likely to support him.
The economy is the most important issue in determining the vote for 30% of Oregon voters, followed by threats to democracy (21%), crime (12%), and abortion acces (12%).
“Among those who say the economy is their top issue, 52% plan to vote for Drazan and 21% for Johnson. A majority of those who say ‘threats to democracy’ is their top issue when voting break for Kotek with 59% support.”
A majority of voters (52%) say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes no difference on their likelihood to vote this November, while 45% say they are either much more likely (39%) or somewhat more likely (6%) to vote because of the decision.
Voters are nearly split on Oregon Measure 114, which would require permits issued by local law enforcement to buy a firearm, and prohibit ammunition magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds. Forty-two percent plan to vote no, and 41% plan to vote yes. Seventeen percent of voters are undecided.
The Emerson College Polling Oregon poll was conducted September 30-October 1, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=796, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party registration, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, web survey via email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.