Majority of Voters Say Oz’s NJ Residence Makes Them Less Likely to Vote for Him
The latest Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman with a 4-point lead over Mehmet Oz, 48% to 44% in the race for US Senate. Five percent are undecided and three percent plan to vote for someone else. Despite a 4-point lead on the ballot, 56% of Pennsylvania voters expect Fetterman to win the election while 44% expect Oz to win, regardless of whom they support.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “Three out of four urban voters support Fetterman whereas 59% of rural voters support Oz. Suburban voters are the battleground for this election, they are split 47% support Fetterman and 47% support Oz.”
In the race to replace term-limited Governor Tom Wolf, Attorney General Josh Shapiro leads State Senator Doug Mastriano 47% to 44%. Six percent are undecided and 3% plan to support someone else. Like the US Senate race, voters expect the Democratic candidate to prevail in the gubernatorial election; 57% expect Shapiro to win while 43% expect Mastriano to win.
A majority, 52% have a very (34%) or somewhat (18%) favorable view of the Attorney General, while 41% have a somewhat (7%) or very (34%) unfavorable view of Shapiro. This compares to his opponent Doug Mastriano, whom 45% of voters have a very (31%) or somewhat (14%) favorable opinion, while 49% have a somewhat (7%) or very (43%) unfavorable view of Mastriano.
A majority of voters (56%) have a somewhat (11%) or very (45%) unfavorable view of Mehmet Oz, while 41% have a very (18%) or somewhat (23%) favorable view of Oz. A slight plurality of voters (48%) have a very (34%) or somewhat (14%) favorable view of John Fetterman while 46% have a somewhat (8%) or very (38%) unfavorable view.
“While Mastriano’s unfavorables are not as intense as Oz’s unfavorables, he faces the upward challenge of running against Shapiro, the most popular candidate on the ballot who also holds statewide office,” Kimball remarked.
Voters were asked about two focal points of the Pennsylvania Senate campaigns: Fetterman’s recent stroke and Mehmet Oz’s longtime New Jersey residence. Regarding the impact of Fetterman’s stroke on Pennsylvania voters’ decision, 68% say it makes no difference on their vote, while 22% say it makes them less likely to vote for Fetterman, and 9% say it makes them more likely to vote for him. When asked about Mehmet Oz’s longtime New Jersey residence, a majority of Pennsylvania voters (51%) say it makes them less likely to support Oz, 40% say it makes no difference, and 9% say it makes them more likely to support Oz in the race for US Senate.
“Eighty percent of undecided Senate voters say Fetterman’s recent stroke has no impact on their vote, whereas over a third, of undecided voters, 34%, say Oz’s New Jersey residence makes them less likely to vote for him come November,” Kimball noted.
President Biden holds a 39% approval in the Keystone state, while 57% disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.
Moving to 2024, in a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump leads Biden among Pennsylvania voters 47% to 42%; 8% would support someone else and 3% are undecided. Concerning the recent FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate makes them more or less likely to support Trump in 2024, 38% say it makes them more likely to support the former President, 34% say it makes them less likely to support Trump in 2024, and 28% say it makes no difference on their vote.
Kimball noted, “Significant portions of young voters and college educated voters say they would support someone else or are undecided on a Trump-Biden 2024 ballot. In context of yesterday’s student loan relief decision, Biden seems to be consciously attempting to re-motivate this base of support in key states like Pennsylvania ahead of a Midterm Election,” Kimball noted.
The economy is the most important issue facing Pennsylvania for a plurality of voters (45%), followed by abortion access (14%), crime (10%), healthcare (9%), education (6%), and immigration (6%).
“Abortion access is five points higher for Pennsylvania voters than it is nationwide. Abortion access is more of a concern for female voters, who break heavily for Fetterman and Shapiro on the ballot. Additionally, 100% of voters who say abortion is the most important issue facing Pennsylvania are ‘very motivated’ to vote this November, compared to 91% of those who say the economy are ‘very motivated.’”
Overall, 92% of very likely Midterm voters say they are very motivated to participate in the 2022 Midterm Elections, 7% are somewhat motivated, and 1% are not too motivated. On the generic congressional ballot, 47% plan to support the Republican candidate and 46% the Democratic candidate on the ballot.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 22-23, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,034, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.