Mastriano Breaks Away From Barletta Following Trump Endorsement

The final Emerson College Poll of very likely Republican primary voters found the Trump-endorsed candidates with plurality support in their respective elections for U.S. Senate and Governor. In the primary race for US Senate, Mehmet Oz holds 28% support, followed by Kathy Barnette with 24%, and David McCormick with 21%. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided, and were asked a follow-up question on who they are leaning towards. With their support allocated, Oz increases his support to 32%, followed by Barnette with 27%, and McCormick with 26%. Since last month’s Pennsylvania GOP poll, Oz has gained 10 points and Barnette has gained 12 points, while McCormick has lost two points.

In the GOP gubernatorial race, Doug Mastriano has surged to first place with 34%, while Lou Barletta trails with 22%. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided, and were again asked a follow-up question on who they are leaning toward. A majority, 54%, of undecideds break for Mastriano when asked. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Mastriano increases his share of support significantly to 42%, while Barletta reaches 24%. Since the April Emerson GOP poll, Mastriano has gained 20 points while Barletta has lost three points.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Among those who have already voted, Mastriano has 13%, but his support rises to 37% of those who plan to vote on election day. His opponent Barletta is getting about an equal share with 25% of the early vote and 21% of the election day voters. That type of election-day vote momentum is not seen in the Senate race: Oz leads the election day vote with 27% followed by Barnette at 24%.”

There is a generational divide among GOP voters in the Senate primary: 33% of those under 50 break for McCormick whereas those over 50 break for Oz with 38%; just 15% support among those over 50 support McCormick. Barnette does best with 30-64 year old voters with 32%.

Oz trails McCormick in the suburbs 32% to 27%, while Barnette leads Oz in rural areas 31% to 28%. In the urban/city areas, Oz receives 31%, followed by McCormick at 26% and Barnette at 21%.

Oz has 32% of the female vote and receives 25% of the male vote, Barnette receives an equal break of 24% apiece while McCormick’s base is the male vote at 28% compared to 13% of the female vote.

While Oz holds a plurality of support in the primary, 48% of Republican primary voters have a somewhat or strongly unfavorable opinion of Oz, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion of McCormick and 28% who view Barnette unfavorably. David McCormick has the highest favorability: 46% have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of McCormick. Barnette holds 43% favorability while Oz holds 37%.  

Caller ID

The Emerson College Polling Pennsylvania poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 14-15, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by age, gender, region, education and mode based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.