The latest Emerson College Polling national survey of voters finds President Joe Biden with his highest approval all year from an Emerson poll, at 45% approve and 49% disapprove. Five percent are neutral. Since last month, his approval has increased three points and his disapproval has decreased two points. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Biden’s increase in approval appears to be driven by women voters. Since July, women voters’ approval of the President has jumped 10 points, from 39% to 49%.”

In the 2022 Midterm Election generic ballot, 45% would vote for the Democratic candidate at this time and 45% for the Republican candidate; 10% are undecided. This reflects a one point increase for Democrats, as the generic ballot has been stagnant since July in the Emerson national poll

Kimball noted, “Women voters support the Democratic congressional candidate over the Republican candidate by 10 points, while men break for the Republican candidate by 12.”

When asked about the overturning of Roe v. Wade relative to their likelihood to vote in 2022, 57% say they are much more likely (42%) or somewhat more likely (15%) to vote, while 39% say it makes no difference.

“Among those much more likely to vote following the Roe v. Wade decision, 70% plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. For those whom it makes no difference, 70% plan to vote for the Republican candidate,” Kimball noted.

In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden leads 45% to 44%; 6% would vote for someone else, and 5% are undecided. The FBI search of Mar-a-Lago’s impact on Trump’s support is split: 33% say it makes them more likely to support Trump in 2024, 33% say it makes them less likely, and 34% say it makes no difference. 

The economy is the most important issue to 39% of voters, followed by threats to democracy (15%), and abortion access (10%). When asked which of the following is the most important issue concerning the American economy, 45% say controlling inflation, 16% say housing affordability, 10% say lowering gas prices, 9% taxes, 8% increasing jobs, and 12% say something else. 

Voters were asked if they agree or disagree that the pandemic is over following President Biden’s 60 Minutes interview where he said the same. Fifty-six percent strongly (24%) or somewhat (32%) agree that the pandemic is over, while 36% somewhat (21%) or strongly disagree (15%).

“Sixty-four percent of Republicans agree that the pandemic is over, while 53% of Democrats share the same view. Independents are more split: 49% agree the pandemic is over while 39% disagree,” Kimball explained.

Voters were asked if they support or oppose Puerto Rico joining the US as a new state, then separately asked the same of the District of Columbia (DC). Forty-seven percent support Puerto Rican statehood, while 29% oppose and 24% have no opinion. Forty-four percent support DC statehood, while 38% oppose and 18% have no opinion.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling national poll was conducted September 20-21, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,368, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.56 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel.

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