Rhoden Holds Double-Digit Lead in Gubernatorial Race
A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND poll finds 50% of voters support incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds, while 42% support independent candidate Brian Bengs. Eight percent are undecided with less than two weeks until Election Day. After undecideds are asked which candidate they lean toward, Rounds’ overall support increases to 54%, and Bengs to 46%.
Those who have already cast a ballot (n=94) break for the independent candidate by 10 points, 55% to 45%, while those who have yet to cast a ballot (n=709) support Rounds by a ten-point margin, 50% to 40%.
“There is an age divide in South Dakota: voters under 40 break for the independent candidate, Bengs, 48% to 41%, while voters over 50 support Rounds, 54% to 38%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Rounds has a 17-point advantage among men, 56% to 39%, while women are split; 44% support Rounds and Bengs, respectively.”
In the gubernatorial race, 56% support incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden, while 38% support Democrat Dan Ahlers; 6% are undecided. With undecided voters accounted for, Rhoden’s support increases to 60%, and Ahlers to 41%.
Twelve percent of voters who support Rhoden in the gubernatorial election are splitting their ticket to back Bengs, an independent, in the Senate election. Five percent of voters who support Ahlers for governor are splitting their ticket to back incumbent Republican Rounds in the Senate election.
President Trump holds a 44% job approval rating among South Dakota voters, a nine-point drop from May, while 52% disapprove of the job he is doing in office, up 10 points from May.
Voters were asked if they plan to vote for a series of ballot measures:
- 64% of voters support Amendment J: an amendment to the South Dakota Constitution clarifying that an individual must be a citizen of the United States to be eligible to vote; 33% oppose, and 3% are unsure.
- 59% oppose Amendment I: an amendment to the state constitution that repeals expanded Medicaid coverage if federal funding for the program drops below 90%; 27% support it, and 14% are undecided.
- 60% oppose Amendment L: an amendment to the state constitution requiring that a proposed constitutional amendment receive an affirmative vote of sixty percent of the votes cast, 29% support, 29% support it, and 11% are unsure.
- 41% support Amendment K: an amendment to the state constitution establishing the trust for unclaimed property fund, 30% oppose, and 29% are undecided.
Voters oppose a hyperscale data center being built in South Dakota, 57% to 35%, while 8% are neutral.
South Dakota voters support the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, 63% to 28%. Nine percent are neutral.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND South Dakota survey was conducted October 19-21, 2026. The overall sample of South Dakota likely voters, n=803, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.5 percent.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. The survey was offered in both English.
All MMS respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. The survey was administered using QuestionPro.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
