An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Texas voters finds Republican Governor Greg Abbott with an eight point lead over his Democratic challenger, Beto O’Rourke, 50% to 42%. Two percent support Libertarian Mark Tippetts, and 5% are undecided. Since the last Emerson/The Hill survey in February, Abbott’s seven point lead has grown to eight, with his support dropping by two points, and O’Rourke’s dropping by 3. Regardless of whom they support, a majority of voters (63%) expect Governor Abbott to win, while 37% expect O’Rourke to win.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Texas’ white voters prefer Abbott over O’Rourke 60% to 35%, and Hispanic voters plan to vote for the Governor 46% to 42%. By contrast, Black voters prefer O’Rourke over Abbott 78% to 12%.”
A majority of Texas voters (55%) have a favorable view of Greg Abbott, while 43% have a negative view of the Governor. Forty-four percent have a favorable view of Beto O’Rourke, while 52% have a negative view of him.
Voters were asked which candidate they align with most on the issue of abortion rights. Forty-nine percent align with Abbott while 44% align with O’Rourke. On the issue of border security, 58% align with Abbott and 39% with O’Rourke.
Fifty-six percent of Texas voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 37% approve. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 49% would support Trump and 40% Biden. Eight percent would support someone else and 3% are undecided.
The recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes 39% of Texans more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 31% are less likely to support Trump because of the search, and 30% say it makes no difference.
The economy is the top issue for 40% of Texas voters, followed by abortion access (16%), immigration (12%), and healthcare (8%).
Fifty-five percent of voters say they are much more likely (49%) or somewhat more likely (5%) to vote in the 2022 Elections because of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 41% say it makes no difference on their vote.
“Among those much more likely to vote because of Roe overturning, 62% plan to vote for O’Rourke. For those whom it makes no difference, 72% plan to vote for Abbott,” Kimball noted.
In the past year, 74% of voters think housing affordability in Texas has worsened, 20% think it has stayed the same, and 7% think affordability has improved.
Sixty-two percent of voters think crime in Texas has increased in the past year. Thirty percent think it has stayed the same, and 8% think it has decreased.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Texas poll was conducted September 20-22, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, cell phones via SMS-to-web, and an online panel.
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