The latest Emerson College Polling survey of Utah voters finds Republican Mike Lee with 49% support in the race for US Senate, while unaffiliated candidate Evan McMullin holds 39% support. Four percent plan to vote for Libertarian candidate James Arthur Hansen, while 4% are undecided. Undecided voters were asked whom they lean towards supporting. With their support allocated, Lee’s lead remains at ten points, leading McMullin 50% to 40%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Lee holds the majority of support among Republican voters, leading McMullin 71% to 23%, whereas McMullin holds a ten point lead among independent voters, leading 46% to 36% and among Democratic voters 71% to 6%.”
Kimball added, “McMullin’s support is strongest among voters under 35 at 41%, whereas Lee holds the majority of support among voters over 50 with 57%.”
Senator Lee is viewed favorably by 52% of voters, whereas 44% have an unfavorable view of him. Evan McMullin is viewed favorably by 41% of voters, whereas 47% view him unfavorably.
The economy is the top issue for 47% of Utah voters in determining their November vote, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), and abortion access (10%).
Biden holds a 60% disapproval among Utah voters, while 30% approve of the job he is doing as president. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Trump and 34% for Biden. Seventeen percent would vote for someone else.
The survey measured the impact of the Trump endorsement and Romney endorsement. Kimball noted, “either a Trump endorsement or Romney endorsement may do more harm than good: 24% say they are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump while 42% are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump. Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters are more likely to support a candidate if they are endorsed by Romney, compared to 38% who are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Romney.”
The Emerson College Polling Utah poll was conducted October 25-28, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=825, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.