The final Emerson College Polling/WFRV-TV/The Hill survey of the Wisconsin November general election finds Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson with a four-point lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, leading 50% to 46%. Three percent are undecided, and 2% plan to support someone else. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Johnson’s vote share increases to 51% and Barnes holds at 46%. Since the first Emerson College Polling survey in September, Johnson and Barnes’s support has increased two percentage points respectively. Regardless of whom they support for US Senate, 59% expect Johnson to be re-elected, and 41% expect Barnes to win.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Men and women voters break in opposite directions for US Senate: Johnson leads Barnes among male voters 55% to 41% whereas women voters break for Barnes over Johnson 50% to 45%.”
Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable view of Senator Johnson, while 48% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-seven percent view Lieutenant Governor Barnes favorably, while 50% have an unfavorable view of Barnes.
In the gubernatorial election, 48% voters support Republican Tim Michels while 47% support incumbent Governor Tony Evers. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Michels and Evers increase their support by one point, Michels to 49% and Evers to 48%. Regardless of whom they are voting for, 51% expect Governor Evers to be re-elected while 49% expect Michels to win.
Forty-eight percent hold a favorable view of Governor Evers, while 50% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Tim Michels, 46% have an unfavorable view of him.
President Biden currently holds a 53% disapproval rating among Wisconsin voters, while 40% approve of the job he is doing as president. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 44% would vote for Biden and 43% for Trump. Ten percent would support someone else, and 3% are undecided.
A plurality of voters (44%) say former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of a candidate makes them less likely to vote for that candidate, while 28% are more likely to support them and 27% say it makes no difference on their vote.
Kimball noted, “Nearly half of independent voters, 49%, say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to vote for a candidate. This group is split evenly in the gubernatorial election between Evers and Michels, 46% to 46%, and lean towards Johnson in the US Senate Election, 48% to 45%.”
The economy is the most important issue for 42% of Wisconsin voters, followed by “threats to democracy” (16%), abortion access (13%), healthcare (10%), and crime (9%).
Fifty-one percent of voters align more with the Republican party on the issue of police funding, while 37% percent align with the Democratic party. Thirteen percent of voters align most with neither party.
The Emerson College Polling Wisconsin poll was conducted October 27-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education, based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.