A new Emerson College Polling survey in Wisconsin finds former President Donald Trump and President Biden neck and neck in a potential 2024 matchup: 42% support Trump and 40% support Biden. Eleven percent support someone else and 8% are undecided.
“In a state Biden won in 2020 by less than a percentage point, and Trump won in 2016 by nearly the same margin, this poll suggests a similar trajectory for 2024,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent voters in Wisconsin are nearly split: 33% support Biden and 31% support Trump; a plurality, 36%, of independents are undecided or plan on voting for someone else at this time.”
“Voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump, 48% to 36%,” Kimball added.
Wisconsin respondents were asked about the results of the 2016 and 2020 elections: whether they were won by Trump and Biden fair and square, or if the candidates stole the elections. A majority (61%) think Trump’s 2016 victory was won fair and square, while 18% think he stole the election. When it comes to 2020, a lesser majority (51%) think Biden won the election fair and square, while 35% think he stole the election.
“These numbers are reflective of another swing state, Pennsylvania, where 61% think Trump won fair and square in 2016 and 52% said the same of Biden in 2020,” Kimball noted. “Like in Pennsylvania, this falls along partisan lines in Wisconsin: 35% of Democrats think Trump won fair and square in 2016, while 35% of Democrats think he stole the election, and 68% of Republicans think Biden stole the 2020 election, and 20% think he won fair and square.”
About half of both Trump and Biden supporters say there is nothing their candidate could say or do in the next several months that would change their support, at 51% and 50% respectively, while just less than a quarter say there is something Trump (24%) or Biden (23%) could do that would make them change their minds.
Just over a third of Wisconsin residents (34%) approve of the job President Biden is doing in office, while 49% disapprove of Biden; 17% are neutral. Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers holds a 41% approval rating, while 36% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor, and 23% are neutral.
Respondents were asked which option they prefer when it comes to cars: a car that uses ethanol fuel, a car that uses an electric battery, or neither. A plurality (47%) prefer a car that uses ethanol fuel, while 20% prefer an electric battery fueled car. Thirty-two percent prefer neither option.
“Preference for ethanol fuel versus electric batteries in cars varies by party affiliation in Wisconsin: 12% of Republicans prefer electric batteries while 32% of Democrats say the same; independents fall in between partisan voters with 18% preferring electric batteries,” Kimball noted.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Wisconsin poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 532 Wisconsin voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=571 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=532 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Wisconsin voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (WI SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
