The latest Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill survey of general election voters finds Governor Kathy Hochul with an 15-point lead over Representative Lee Zeldin, 50% to 35%. Six percent of voters plan to vote for someone else and 9% are still undecided. The race remains relatively unchanged since early August, when Hochul led Zeldin by a similar 51% to 35%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “There are stark racial divides in the gubernatorial election; Governor Hochul holds the majority of support among Hispanic votes at 59% and Black voters at 72%, whereas white voters are evenly split between Hochul and Zeldin with 44% apiece.”
In the US Senate election, Senator Chuck Schumer leads his Republican challenger Joe Pinion by 24 points, 55% to 31%. Five percent plan to vote for someone else and 9% are undecided.
President Biden has a 52% job approval in New York, while 44% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since August, Biden has held his job approval at 52% while his disapproval has decreased four points from 48% to 44%.
“The President’s approval is highest among voters under 35 at 58%. This ten-point increase in approval since last month could be reflective of Biden’s recent action on student loans,” Kimball said.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden holds a 15-point lead, 53% to 38%; 8% plan to vote for someone else. Biden won New York by 23 points in 2020, 61% to 38%.
The economy is the most important issue to 38% of New York voters, followed by abortion access (14%), healthcare (10%), gun violence (9%), crime (7%), and immigration (5%).
Kimball noted, “Among voters under 35, healthcare is the most important issue, whereas voters over 35 agree the economy is the most important issue.”
A majority of voters (52%) think that employees fired for not complying with Covid-19 vaccine requirements should get their jobs back, while 30% think they should not; 19% are neutral or have no opinion on the matter.
Eighty-percent of New York voters agree that access to abortion should be legal in the third trimester, either always allowed (30%) or alllowed if there is risk to the mother’s life (50%), whereas 20% of voters think abortion should not be allowed in the third trimester.
New York voters think the current bail reform policy has increased crime rather than decreased crime 61% to 11%; 28% think it has had no impact on the amount of crime in New York.
By contrast, a plurality of New York voters (38%) think new gun laws regarding eligibility requirements for concealed carry permit applications and restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons in “sensitive locations” will have no impact on the amount of crime, 32% think it will increase crime, and 30% think it will decrease crime.
“Republican and Independent voters think the current bail reform policy and new gun laws regarding eligibility requirements have increased and will increase crime, whereas the plurality of Democratic voters think the measures had no impact and will have no impact on crime” Kimball added.
Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling survey of New York voters was conducted September 4-6, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
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