The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill/WTNH survey of Connecticut voters finds incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal with a 13-point lead in the race for US Senate over his Republican challenger Leora Levy, 49% to 36%. Eleven percent are undecided ahead of the November election, and 5% plan to vote for someone else. Since the May Emerson/The Hill survey in Connecticut, Blumenthal’s support has decreased by three points, and Levy’s support has held at 36%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “A majority of voters over 50 plan to support Blumenthal, however voters under 50 are more split. Voters under 35 break for Blumenthal over Levy 40% to 31%, while 15% plan to support someone else. Levy has an edge among voters between 35 and 49, leading Blumenthal 40% to 39%.”
“We continue to see a gender divide in the midterm elections in Connecticut as women voters break for Blumenthal by 25 points and Lamont by 19, whereas the race among male voters is much tighter: men support Blumenthal by one and Lamont by three,” Kimball noted.
In the gubernatorial election, Governor Ned Lamont holds a 11-point lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, 49% to 38%. Nine percent are undecided and 4% plan to vote for someone else. Since May, Lamont’s support decreased by two points and Stefanowki’s support has stayed the same.
When asked which gubernatorial candidate they believe is more trustworthy, Ned Lamont or Bob Stefanowski, a majority of voters (57%) believe Lamont is more trustworthy while 43% think Stefanowki is more trustworthy.
A majority of voters (53%) view Senator Blumenthal very (36%) or somewhat (17%) favorably, whereas 42% hold a somewhat (8%) or very (34%) unfavorable view of Blumenthal. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Connecticut voters have a very (19%) or somewhat (19%) favorable view of Leora Levy, 34% either are unsure (19%) or have never heard of (15%) Levy, and 29% have a somewhat (7%) or very (22%) unfavorable view of Levy.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters hold a very (36%) or somewhat (19%) favorable view of Governor Lamont while 40% have a somewhat (12%) or very (28%) unfavorable view of Lamont. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters have a very (24%) or somewhat (21%) favorable view of Stefanowski, while 45% have a somewhat (12%) or very (33%) unfavorable view of Stefanowski.
A majority of Connecticut likely voters (53%) think the state is generally headed in the right direction, whereas 47% think it is on the wrong track.
“Those who think things in Connecticut are generally on the right track break for the Democratic candidates on the ballot in November; for Lamont by 79 and for Blumenthal by 76 points. On the other hand, those who feel things in Connecticut are on the wrong track break for the Republican candidates, Levy by 58 and Stefanowski by 66 percentage points,” Kimball said.
President Biden’s job approval is split among Connecticut voters: 47% approve of the job he is doing and 46% disapprove.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden leads Trump 49% to 36%; 12% plan to vote for someone else and 3% are undecided. Since May, both Biden and Trump’s support has decreased 2 points.
A plurality of Connecticut voters (40%) say the economy is the top issue in determining their vote this November, followed by threats to democracy (15%) healthcare (10%), abortion access (7%), crime (6%), and gun control (6%).
“Among undecided voters in the US Senate Election, 49% say the economy is the most important issue determining their November vote while 20% say healthcare is the most important issue in determining their vote,” Kimball noted.
Regarding the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, a majority of voters (57%) disapprove of this decision, 28% approve, and 15% are neutral or have no opinion.
“Women voters’ disapproval of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe is five points higher than male disapproval, 60% to 55%, whereas male voters’ neutral opinion on the matter is four points higher than women voters,” Kimball said.
Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling Connecticut poll of likely voters was conducted September 7-9, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat or very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.
