The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Georgia voters finds incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock with a two-point lead over Herschel Walker in the race for US Senate, 48% to 46%. Four percent of voters are undecided. Since the August Emerson Georgia poll, Warnock’s support increased four points and Walker’s support decreased by two points. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “The gender gap in the Senate race has shifted in the Democrats’ favor since August. Republican Walker’s 8-point advantage with men has closed to 6, and Warnock’s lead with women has grown from 5 points to 9.”

A majority of voters (55%) expect Senator Warnock to be re-elected, while 45% expect Walker to win. Since August, the share of voters who expect Warnock to win has increased by two points and Walker decreased by two points.

Fifty-one percent of Georgia voters have a favorable view of Senator Warnock, while 48% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Herschel Walker, while 47% have a favorable view of him. 

In the Georgia gubernatorial election, 51% of voters support incumbent Republican Brian Kemp, while 46% support Democrat Stacey Abrams. Two percent are undecided. A majority of voters (62%) expect Kemp to be re-elected, while 38% expect Abrams to win. Since August, voters’ expectation that Kemp will win have increased by four points, and Abrams decreased by four points. 

A majority of Georgia voters (57%) have a favorable view of Governor Kemp, while 41% have an unfavorable view of him. Georgia voters have almost split favorability of Stacey Abrams: 50% have a negative view of her, while 49% have a favorable view of her.

In a hypothetical 2024 match-up between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 45% would support Trump and 43% support Biden. Eight percent would support someone else and 3% are undecided. A plurality of voters (37%) say the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Trump in 2024, 35% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to support Trump, and 29% say it makes them less likely to vote for him. 

The economy is the most important issue in determining the vote of 40% of voters this November, followed by threats to democracy (19%), abortion acess (12%), crime (7%), and healthcare (8%).

Controlling inflation is considered the most important issue concerning the American economy for 56% of voters, followed by housing affordability (13%), lowering gas prices (10%), increasing jobs (8%), and taxes (6%). 

A majority of Georgia voters (52%) say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them much more (43%) or somewhat more (9%) likely to vote, while 45% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling survey of Georgia voters was conducted October 6-7, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, a voter registration list of emails, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

INTERACTIVE REPORT