Majority of Voters Say Trump Guilty Verdict Would Not Impact Vote
The May 2024 Emerson College Polling national survey of U.S. voters finds 46% support former President Donald Trump, and 44% support President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Ten percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race splits evenly: 50% support Trump and 50% Biden.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Voters under 30 break for Biden by 15 points, with a quarter undecided. When these undecideds are pushed, the group breaks for Biden by 26 points, 63% to 37%, reflective of his margin in 2020 with this group.”
“That said, Biden trails Trump 41% to 45% among voters in their 30s, among whom he led Trump in 2020,” Kimball continued. “Trump’s support has grown since 2020 among voters in their 50s according to this poll, leading Biden by 19 points, 57% to 38%.
New voters, those who did not vote in 2020, break for Trump 35% to 24%, with 41% undecided.
With third-party candidates included on the ballot test, Trump’s support decreased two points, from 46% to 44%, and Biden’s five points, from 44% to 39%. Six percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Ten percent are undecided.
- Since last month, RFK Jr.’s support has decreased from 8% to 6%.
President Biden holds a 37% job approval rating and 52% disapproval.
A majority of voters (53%) say Donald Trump receiving a guilty verdict in the New York criminal trial would not impact their vote in 2024, while 25% say it makes them less likely to vote for the former president, and 23% more likely.
Democratic and Republican primary and caucus voters were asked if they think their party should nominate Joe Biden and Donald Trump, respectively, at their party conventions this summer, or if they should nominate someone else.
- 68% of Democratic primary voters think the Democratic Party should nominate Joe Biden, 24% think they should nominate someone else, and 8% are unsure or have no opinion.
- A majority of all age groups support the Democrats nominating Joe Biden except voters under 30: 53% of voters under 30 think Democrats should nominate someone other than Joe Biden and 38% think they should nominate Joe Biden.
- 80% of Republican primary voters think the Republican Party should nominate Donald Trump, 14% think someone else should receive the nomination, and 6% are unsure or have no opinion.
Forty-two percent of voters think the two scheduled presidential debates in 2024 between Biden and Trump are sufficient, while 41% think there should be more debates, and 17% think there should be fewer debates.
The economy is the most important issue for 38% of voters, followed by immigration at 17%, threats to democracy at 13%, and healthcare, abortion access, crime, and housing affordability at 6% respectively.
- Respondents who said immigration is their top issue dropped four points since the April national poll, from 21% to 17%.
- Respondents who said threats to democracy is their top issue rose by three points, from 10% to 13%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted May 21-23, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,100, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
