Craig, Ayotte Lead Respective Gubernatorial Primaries
A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey of New Hampshire voters finds 50% of voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and 46% support former president Donald Trump. Four percent of voters are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Harris’ total support increases to 52% and Trump 48%. With third party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads Trump 48% to 41%; 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 1% support Jill Stein.
“Harris has improved upon Biden’s November 2023 polling performance against Trump by three points, 47% to 50%, and Trump’s support similarly increased by four, 42% to 46%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“On the ballot with independent candidates, Harris outperforms Biden more significantly: Biden led Trump by three in November, 40% to 37%, now Harris leads by seven, 48% to 41%. This is partly driven by an increase in support among younger voters: Harris has a 17-point lead among voters under 30 on the ballot with independent candidates compared to Biden leading by four among this group in November.”
- Harris leads among independent New Hampshire voters by 11 points, 52% to 41%. Independent men break for Harris 51% to 47%, and independent women break for Harris 53% to 36%.
President Biden holds a 39% job approval among voters, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Chris Sununu holds a 41% job approval, while 29% disapprove and 31% are neutral.
In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, 33% of voters support Joyce Craig, 21% support Cinde Warmington, and 44% are undecided. In the Republican Primary, 41% support former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, 26% support former State Senator Chuck Morse, and 33% are undecided.
On the generic congressional ballot test, 48% plan to support the Democratic candidate for Congress, 43% plan to support the Republican candidate, and nine percent are undecided.
Housing affordability (30%) and the economy (30%) are the top two issues for New Hampshire voters. Other concerns include threats to democracy (10%), immigration (7%), education (5%), healthcare (5%), and abortion access (4%).
A majority of New Hampshire voters (57%) are somewhat or strongly supportive of implementing a mandatory seatbelt law for those over 18 years of age, while 34% are strongly or somewhat opposed to such a proposal.
“Democrats are more in favor of a mandatory seatbelt law compared to Republicans, 75% to 41%,” Shane Sekuler, who interned at Emerson College Polling this summer, said. “Independents are more split on the issue: 54% would support a law, while 36% would oppose it. As it stands, New Hampshire is the only state in the country that does not have such a law.”
A majority of New Hampshire voters (61%) would vote “no” on a ballot measure that would increase the mandatory retirement age for judges from 70 to 75; 18% would vote “yes.”
Methodology
The sample of New Hampshire voters consists of n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state. The sample size of the Democratic primary is n=433 with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%. The Republican primary sample size is n=421 with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 26-28, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & WHDH. The New Hampshire survey was offered in English.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
