Senator Ron Wyden Holds 17-Point Lead Over Challenger
The final Emerson College Polling survey in Oregon finds 44% of voters support Democrat Tina Kotek for Governor while 40% support Republican Christine Drazan, and 8% support non-affiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. Six percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support is accounted for, Kotek’s support increases to 46%, Drazan to 41%, and Johnson to 9%.
Since an early October Emerson poll in Oregon, Kotek’s support has increased by four points, Drazan increased six points, and Johnson has lost 11 points. Regarding which candidate voters expect to win next week, voters are split: 49% expect Kotek to win, 47% expect Draan to win, and 5% expect Johnson to win.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Kotek holds a 14-point lead among Oregon women voters, whereas Drazan holds a nine-point lead among male voters. In a state where the voting population is nearly evenly split, Kotek’s larger base of women voters could win her the plurality of support.”
Forty-five percent have a favorable view of Drazan, 46% have a favorable view of Kotek, and 33% have a favorable view of Johnson. Forty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Drazan, 48% of Kotek, and 53% of Johnson.
In the US Senate Election, 51% plan to support Democrat Ron Wyden and 34% support Jo Rae Perkins. Three percent plan to support progressive candidate Chris Henry and 8% are undecided.
President Biden holds a split approval among Oregon voters: 45% disapprove and 44% approve of the job he is doing as president.
In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election match-up, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, 51% would vote for Biden, 35% would vote for Trump, and 11% would vote for someone else.
The economy is the most important issue to a third of Oregon voters (33%), followed by “threats to democracy” (18%), abortion access (13%), crime (9%), and healthcare (7%).
The Emerson College Polling survey of Oregon voters was conducted October 31-November 1, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=975 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.