The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Texas voters finds Republican Governor Greg Abbot with a ten-point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke 52% to 42%. Four percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked who they are leaning towards and accounted for in their candidate’s total support, Abbott’s lead tightens to nine percentage points, 53% to 44%. Since the September Emerson/The Hill poll, O’Rourke’s support has held and Abbot has increased two percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Abbott has a commanding 23-point lead among male voters, whereas O’Rourke holds a three-point lead among women voters.”
A majority of Texas voters (55%) have a favorable view of Governor Abbott, while 42% have an unfavorable view of him. By contrast, 45% of voters have a favorable view of O’Rourke and 51% an unfavorable view of him.
In the Attorney General Election, incumbent Republican Ken Paxton holds a five-point lead over his Democratic opponent Rochelle Garza, 47% to 42%. Four percent plan to vote for Libertarian candidate Mark Ash, and 8% are undecided.
In the election for Lieutenant Governor, 47% plan to support incumbent Dan Patrick, while 42% plan to support Democratic candidate Mike Collier. Three percent plan to support Libertarian candidate Shanna Steele and 7% are undecided.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would support Trump and 40% Biden. Nine percent would vote for someone else and 3% are undecided.
The economy is the most important issue for 45% of Texas voters, followed by healthcare (11%), abortion access (11%), threats to democracy (10%), and immigration (9%).
A majority of Texas voters (53%) support the busing of migrants awaiting asylum hearings from Texas to other parts of the country, while 36% oppose it. Ten percent are unsure or have no opinion.
A majority of voters (67%) support abortion being legal in cases of rape or incest, while 15% oppose its legality in these cases. Seventeen percent are unsure or have no opinion on the matter.
Kimball noted, “A majority of all political parties think abortion should be legal in cases of rape or incest, including 81% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and 51% of Republicans.”
Voters were asked which of the following marijuana policies they most support: illegal in all cases, legal for medical use only, or legal for both recreational and medical use. The plurality of voters (46%) think it should be legal for both medical and recreational use, while 37% think it should be legal in medical cases only, and 18% think it should be illegal in all cases.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Texas voters was conducted October 17-19, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, a voter registration list of emails, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.