Democrats Maintain Lead over Republicans in Five Senate Races
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state polls find President Biden trailing former President Trump in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the differences are within each survey’s margin of error.
In Arizona, Trump leads by four points: 48% to 44%; 8% are undecided. In Georgia, 47% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 9% are undecided. In Michigan, 45% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 11% are undecided. In Nevada, 45% support Trump and 44% support Biden, while 11% are undecided. In North Carolina, 47% support Trump, and 42% Biden; 10% are undecided. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 47% support Trump, 45% Biden, and 8% are undecided.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball noted.
- Biden leads Trump among voters who are members of labor unions in Michigan (48%-46%), Pennsylvania (50%-43%), and Wisconsin (55%-44%).
When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan.
As the criminal trial is being held in New York, voters were asked which statement comes closer to their view: the trial is appropriate to hold Trump accountable, or the trial is a “witch hunt”. A plurality of voters in all swing states consider the trial appropriate to hold the former president accountable.
Voters were asked how a Trump guilty verdict would impact the likelihood of supporting him for president in 2024. A majority of Republicans say it would make them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 15% of Pennsylvania Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump, along with 13% in Arizona, 11% in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and 9% in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Impact of a guilty verdict on independent voters’ likelihood to support Trump:
- AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
Statewide Elections
In the Arizona U.S. Senate election, 45% support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, while 43% support Republican Kari Lake; 12% are undecided. Since March, Gallego’s support has increased by one point, and Lake by three.
In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, 46% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, 42% support Republican Dave McCormick, and 12% are undecided.
In the Michigan U.S. Senate election, 42% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin for the open seat, 40% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 19% are undecided.
In Wisconsin, 46% of voters support incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 43% support Republican Eric Hovde. Eleven percent are undecided.
In the North Carolina gubernatorial election, 42% support Republican Mark Robinson, while 41% support Democrat Josh Stein. Five percent plan to vote for someone else and 12% are undecided.
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, Rosen leads 45% to 37%, with 18% undecided. When Rosen is matched up against Republican Jeff Gunter, Rosen leads 47% to 33%, with 21% undecided.
Swing State Gubernatorial Approval
- Katie Hobbs (AZ-D): 38% approve, 42% disapprove, 20% neutral
- Brian Kemp (GA-R): 50% approve, 30% disapprove, 20% neutral
- Gretchen Whitmer (MI-D): 49% approve, 43% disapprove, 8% neutral
- Roy Cooper (NC-D): 41% approve, 38% disapprove, 20% neutral
- Joe Lombardo (NV-R): 40% approve, 31% disapprove, 30% neutral
- Josh Shapiro (PA-D): 47% approve, 32% disapprove, 21% neutral
- Tony Evers (WI-D): 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
Joe Biden approval
- AZ: 40% approve, 51% disapprove, 9% neutral
- GA: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 9% neutral
- MI: 40% approve, 52% disapprove, 8% neutral
- NC: 37% approve, 53% disapprove, 10% neutral
- NV: 38% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
- PA: 41% approve, 51% disapprove, 8% neutral
- WI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 9% neutral
Methodology
The sample for each state included n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide general population parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between April 25-29, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
